Will the US take over the sleeping world in 2019?
In the 2019 Outlook, Goldman Sachs Investment Banking Division reviews the economic, social and institutional factors they thing account for US preeminence on the world stage.
The long and short of it
They conclude that while the US is not immune to developments beyond its borders, the country is better positioned to weather future storms than virtually any other. It is also sufficiently resilient to absorb uncertainty created from within.
Interestingly, they consider that many of the current administration’s policies, actions, and attitudes that have caused investors angst in recent months are not new and are certainly not unprecedented.
While their analysis considers the likelihood of a US recession in 2019 higher than last year, it is still low. At the same time, they acknowledge that investor sentiment can be a self-fulfilling force, and bouts of volatility are inevitable as markets continue to react to heightened uncertainty.
That said, and as unsettling as the recent free fall in financial markets has been, they do not believe it is supported by prevailing economic fundamentals.